Microsoft Corporation: $MSFT Cash Flow Valuation Update

Current Price: ~ $38/share
Yield: ~ 2.44%


Microsoft Corporation is engaged in developing, manufacturing, licensing and supporting software products, services and entertainment, and device hardware products.          

Estimated WACC for the firm today is 9.89% using the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the company's recent SEC filings.

Recent free cash flows and noted growth rates:

Year	FCF $Millions
2004	13517
2005	15793
2006	12826
2007	15532
2008	18430
2009	15918
2010	22096
2011	24639
2012	29321
2013	24576

Average Annual Growth FCF: ~ 8.6%

CAGR FCF: ~ 6.9%

Consensus Forecast Industry 5-Year Growth: ~ 18% per year

Consensus Forecast Company 5-Year Growth: ~ 7% per year

Internal Growth Rate: ~ 12.2%

Sustainable Growth Rate: ~ 24.6%

Scenario 1

• Start at $24576 million FCF
• Assume a 5-year growth rate in FCF of 7% per year, then no growth or 0% growth in FCF per year forever:

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation

Year	FCF $Millions
0	24576
1	26296
2	28137
3	30107
4	32214
5	34469
Terminal Value	372954

The firm's future free cash flows, discounted at a WACC of 9.89%, give a present value for the entire firm (Debt + Equity) of $346267 million. If the firm's fair value of debt is estimated at $14600 million, then the fair value of the firm's equity could be $331667 million.  $331667 million / 8350 million outstanding shares is approximately $40 per share and a 20% margin of safety is $32/share.

Scenario 2
All else being equal,

• Assume a 5-year growth rate in FCF of 10.5% per year, then 0% growth in FCF per year forever:

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation

Year	FCF $Millions
0	24576
1	27156
2	30008
3	33159
4	36640
5	40488
Terminal Value	452404

• Present Value of the entire firm (Debt + Equity): $407272 million
• Value of Equity: $392672 million or $47/share
• 20% margin of safety is $38/share

Sources

Morningstar.com

Yahoo! Finance

Microsoft

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Microsoft Corporation: $MSFT Cash Flow Valuation Update

Current Price: ~ $30/share
Yield: ~ 2.62%


Microsoft develops the Windows PC operating system, the Office suite of productivity software, and enterprise server products such as Windows Server and SQL Server. The Windows PC and Office franchises collectively account for nearly 60% of the firm's revenue, and the server and tools business contributes 25%. The firm's other businesses include the Xbox 360 video game console, Bing Internet search, business software, and software for mobile devices.           

Estimated WACC for the firm today is 11.37% using the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the company's recent SEC filings.

Recent free cash flows and noted growth rates:

Year	FCF $Millions
2003	14906
2004	13517
2005	15793
2006	12826
2007	15532
2008	18430
2009	15918
2010	22096
2011	24639
2012	29321

Average Annual Growth FCF: ~ 9%

CAGR FCF: ~ 8%

Consensus Forecast Industry 5-Year Growth: ~ 20% per year

Consensus Forecast Company 5-Year Growth: ~ 9% per year

Internal Growth Rate: ~ 10%

Sustainable Growth Rate: ~ 21%

Scenario 1
Average FCF (2012, 2011, 2010) is $25352 million

• Start at $25352 million FCF
• Assume a 5-year growth rate in FCF of 9% per year, then no growth or 0% growth in FCF per year forever:

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation

Year	FCF $Millions
0	25352
1	27634
2	30121
3	32832
4	35786
5	39007
Terminal Value	373815

The firm's future free cash flows, discounted at a WACC of 11.37%, give a present value for the entire firm (Debt + Equity) of $337022 million. If the firm's fair value of debt is estimated at $13200 million, then the fair value of the firm's equity could be $323822 million.  $323822 million / 8380 million outstanding shares is approximately $39 per share and a 20% margin of safety is $31/share.

Scenario 2
All else being equal,

• Assume a 5-year growth rate in FCF of 4% per year, then 0% growth in FCF per year forever:

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation

Year	FCF $Millions
0	25352
1	26366
2	27421
3	28518
4	29658
5	30845
Terminal Value	282032

• Present Value of the entire firm (Debt + Equity): $268277 million
• Value of Equity: $255077 million or $30/share
• 20% margin of safety is $24/share

Sources

Morningstar.com

Yahoo! Finance

Microsoft.com

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Microsoft Corporation: $MSFT cash flow valuation update

Current Price: ~ $26/share
Projected Yield: ~ 3.09%

Microsoft develops the Windows PC operating system, the Office suite of productivity software, and enterprise server products such as Windows Server and SQL Server. The Windows PC and Office franchises collectively account for nearly 60% of the firm's revenue, and the server and tools business contributes 24%. The firm's other businesses include the Xbox 360 video game console, Bing Internet search, business software, and software for mobile devices.

I estimated the firm's WACC today at 10.69% using the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the company's recent SEC filings.

Recent free cash flows and growth rates:

Year	FCF $Millions
2002	13739
2003	14906
2004	13517
2005	15793
2006	12826
2007	15532
2008	18430
2009	15918
2010	22096
2011	24639

Average Annual Growth FCF: ~ 8%

CAGR FCF: ~ 7%

Consensus Forecast Industry 5-Year Growth: ~ 20% per year

Consensus Forecast Company 5-Year Growth: ~ 10% per year

Average FCF over the past 3 years is $20,884 million.  Starting at $20,884 million FCF, assuming the company achieves a 5-year growth rate in FCF of 10% per year, and assuming that after the next five years, the company achieves no growth in FCF or 0% growth per year forever:

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation

Year	FCF $Millions
0	20884
1	22972
2	25270
3	27797
4	30576
5	33634
Terminal Value	346106

The firm's future cash flows, discounted at a WACC of 10.69%, give a present value for the entire firm (Debt + Equity) of $310,778 million. If the firm's fair value of debt is estimated at $12,100 million, then the fair value of the firm's equity could be $298,678 million.  $298,678 million / 8380 million outstanding shares is approximately $36 per share and a 20% margin of safety is $29/share.

Sources

Morningstar.com

Yahoo! Finance

Microsoft.com

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.