Current Price: ~ $37/share
Yield: ~ 3.17%
With a heritage that dates back about 140 years, Campbell Soup is now a leading global manufacturer and marketer of branded convenience food products, most notably soup. However, the firm's product assortment spans beyond soup, as its portfolio of well-known brands includes Campbell's, Pace, Prego, Swanson, V8, and Pepperidge Farm. International operations account for around 30% of Campbell's consolidated sales.
Estimated WACC for the firm today is 4.25% using the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the company's recent SEC filings.
Recent free cash flows and noted growth rates:
Year
|
FCF
$Millions
|
2003
|
590
|
2004
|
456
|
2005
|
658
|
2006
|
917
|
2007
|
340
|
2008
|
468
|
2009
|
821
|
2010
|
742
|
2011
|
870
|
2012
|
797
|
Average Annual Growth FCF: ~ 12%
CAGR FCF: ~ 3%
Consensus Forecast Industry 5-Year Growth: ~ 14% per year
Consensus Forecast Company 5-Year Growth: ~ 5% per year
Internal Growth Rate: ~ 6%
Scenario 1
Average the high and low FCF of the past 5 years; Average FCF (2011, 2008) is $669 million
Average the high and low FCF of the past 5 years; Average FCF (2011, 2008) is $669 million
- Start at $669 million FCF
- Assume a 5-year growth rate in FCF of 3% per year, then no growth or 0% growth in FCF per year forever:
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
The firm's future free cash flows, discounted at a WACC of 4.25%, give a present value for the entire firm (Debt + Equity) of $18494 million. If the firm's fair value of debt is estimated at $2663 million, then the fair value of the firm's equity could be $15831 million. $15831 million / 314 million outstanding shares is approximately $50 per share and a 20% margin of safety is $40/share.
Year
|
FCF
$Millions
|
0
|
669
|
1
|
689
|
2
|
710
|
3
|
731
|
4
|
753
|
5
|
776
|
Terminal
Value
|
18799
|
The firm's future free cash flows, discounted at a WACC of 4.25%, give a present value for the entire firm (Debt + Equity) of $18494 million. If the firm's fair value of debt is estimated at $2663 million, then the fair value of the firm's equity could be $15831 million. $15831 million / 314 million outstanding shares is approximately $50 per share and a 20% margin of safety is $40/share.
Scenario 2
Average FCF (2012, 2011, 2010) is $803 million
Average FCF (2012, 2011, 2010) is $803 million
- Start at $803 million FCF
- Assume a higher WACC of 6.25%
- Assume a 5-year growth rate in FCF of 5% per year, then 0% growth in FCF per year forever:
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
All else being equal,
Year
|
FCF
$Millions
|
0
|
803
|
1
|
843
|
2
|
885
|
3
|
930
|
4
|
976
|
5
|
1025
|
Terminal
Value
|
17218
|
All else being equal,
- Present Value of the entire firm (Debt + Equity): $16591 million
- Value of Equity: $13928 million or $44/share
- 20% margin of safety is $35/share
Sources
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
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