Thursday, February 24, 2011

H.J. Heinz Company: excellent yield and compelling emerging markets growth

H.J. Heinz Company ($HNZ) has compelling growth in emerging markets and a dividend yield over 3.50%.  At approximately $50/share, I believe $HNZ is fairly valued on a cash flow valuation basis.

Since its founding more than 100 years ago, Heinz has grown into a globally diversified manufacturer and marketer of packaged foods, selling through grocery stores, convenience stores, and food-service distributors. Its products include ketchup, condiments, sauces, frozen food, soups, beans, pasta meals, infant nutrition, and others; its namesake brand accounts for about 40% of annual sales. International sales account for 60% of the firm's consolidated total.

From Heinz's 3Q FY2011 Preview at the Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference:

  • Heinz is expecting its 23rd consecutive quarter of organic sales growth*
  • Organic sales growth* of approx 2%
  • EPS of approx $.84
  • 14% organic sales growth* in emerging markets
  • Full year outlook EPS of $3.04 to $3.10 and free cash flow of $1,200 million
  • Heinz expects emerging markets at 30% of total sales by FY2016; currently at 16% of total sales
       (* Volume plus price)

I estimated the firm's WACC at 7.82% using the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the company's recent SEC filings.

Recent free cash flows and noted growth rates:
YearFCF $Millions
2003 854
2011 est. 1200
Average Annual Growth ex-2001: 5.43%
CAGR ex-2001: approx. 4.78%
Consensus Forecast Industry 5-Year Growth: approx. 14% per year
Consensus Forecast Company 5-Year Growth: approx. 7% per year
Assuming the company achieves a 5-year growth rate in FCF of 7% per year, and assuming that after the next five years, the company achieves no growth in FCF or 0% growth per year forever:
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
YearFCF $ Millions
Terminal Value23023

The firm's future cash flows, discounted at a WACC of 7.82%, give a present value for the entire firm (Debt + Equity) of $21,663 million. If the firm's fair value of debt is estimated at $4452 million, then the fair value of the firm's equity could be $17,211 million.  $17,211 million / 321 million outstanding shares is approximately $54 per share and a 20% margin of safety is $43.

I don't have my required margin of safety here.  But, I like the firm's emerging markets growth, dividend yield and time-tested business model around packaged foods, ketchup and sauces so I'm persuaded to buy it at $50/share. 

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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